MRNA
Moderna, Inc. Health Care Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) S&P 500Nasdaq-100Russell 3000
$221.72Close
$87.4BMarket cap
$22.36 – $245.8152-week range
Nov 6, 2026Next report · before the open
Highlights
Strengths
- In a stage-2 uptrend all 8 trend conditions pass
- Leading the market RS 99 · stronger than 99% of stocks over 12 months
Cautions
- Results soon Nov 6, 2026, in 5 days
Price
Filing Results Screen pick 52-week high and low Adjusted prices
Key figures
Off 12-month high
10%
1wk
up 10.8%
price change
1mo
up 15.1%
price change
12-month return
up 688%
market up 11% ·
its own up 787%
F-score
2 / 9
Weak
Altman Z
14.81
Low risk
P/E
—
price / earnings
PEG
—
P/E / EPS growth
P/B
10.1×
price / book
Earnings yield
down 3.6%
EBIT / enterprise value
Cheaper than
16%
of the market · expensive
Revenue growth
down 40%
year on year
EPS growth
—
latest quarter
Sales growth
up 2%
latest quarter · -258 pts
ROE
down 29%
return on equity
Free cash margin
down 106%
-$2.1B FCF
D/E
0.07
long-term debt / equity
Net debt / EBITDA
—
Interest cover
—EBIT / interest
Piotroski tests
- not yet profitable on its assets
- operating cash flow is negative
- profitability slipped from last year
- took on more long-term debt
- short-term liquidity weakened
- issued more shares
- assets working less efficiently
- profits backed by cash
- gross margin widened
Trade setup
ATR%
9.0%
$19.97 a day · 2×ATR $181.78
RS
99 / 99
vs the universe
Trend
8 / 8
trend template
Relative volume
0.4×
vs 50-day average
Up/down volume
1.40
50 sessions
Implied move
10.8%
by Nov 6, 2026 · report Nov 6, 2026
Trend template · 8 of 8
Screen verdict
Did not qualify for any screen.
Warning signs
- Shareholders diluted The share count rose 2.1% over the year, from 386m to 394m shares. Each existing share owns a smaller fraction of the company than it did a year ago.
- Revenue shrinking Revenue fell 39.9% over the year, from $3.2B to $1.9B.
Last reported
Jul 31, 2026
Last shock
Aug 20, 2026-24% in one session7.6× volumeno filing matched+66% since
Options
$71.2M84.7% IV · activity
Financials
- Gross 55%
- Net -145%
- Free cash -106%
- Cash
- Long-term debt
| FY2020Dec 31, 2020 | FY2021Dec 31, 2021 | FY2022Dec 31, 2022 | FY2023Dec 31, 2023 | FY2024Dec 31, 2024 | FY2025Dec 31, 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $803.0M | $18.5B | $19.3B | $6.8B | $3.2B | $1.9B |
| Gross margin | 99% | 86% | 72% | 31% | 55% | 55% |
| Operating income | -$763.0M | $13.3B | $9.4B | -$4.2B | -$3.9B | -$3.1B |
| Net income | -$747.0M | $12.2B | $8.4B | -$4.7B | -$3.6B | -$2.8B |
| Net margin | -93% | 66% | 43% | -69% | -110% | -145% |
| Earnings per share | -$1.96 | $28.31 | $20.10 | -$12.34 | -$9.27 | -$7.25 |
| Free cash flow | $2.0B | $13.3B | $4.6B | -$3.8B | -$4.1B | -$2.1B |
| Free cash margin | 244% | 72% | 24% | -56% | -125% | -106% |
| Cash | $2.6B | $6.8B | $3.2B | $2.9B | $1.9B | $2.6B |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | — | $0 | $590.0M |
| Shareholders' equity | $2.6B | $14.1B | $19.1B | $13.9B | $10.9B | $8.7B |
| Shares outstanding | 399m | 403m | 385m | 382m | 386m | 394m |
Next report
Nov 6, 2026 · before the open
Expected move The move, either way, the option market prices in through the next scheduled report: the at-the-money straddle for the first expiry that contains it, over the price. It includes the days around the report, so it slightly overstates the report alone. Methodology
±10.8%
$198 – $245 by Nov 6, 2026
Usual move The median, over the company's last four reports, of how far the stock moved either way from the close before the filing to the close of the session after it. Methodology
±7.2%
last 4: -4.8% · +3.0% · +9.5% · +15.5%
Expected against usual The move the options price through this report over the move the last four reports delivered. Above 1 the event is priced bigger than the company's own record; below 1, smaller. A price, not a forecast: it says what protection through the report costs, not which way the stock will go. Methodology
Bigger than usual
1.5× the usual move
What options price now
- Expected 1-month range The at-the-money straddle for the expiry nearest a month out, as a share of the price: the move, either way, the option market is pricing by then. The range is the price plus and minus that move; the stock ends inside it a little more often than not. Methodology
- $180 – $263 ±18.8% by Nov 27, 2026
- Swings expected vs recent The daily swings the options are priced for (implied volatility) against the swings the stock actually had over the last 20 sessions (realised volatility). Bigger means options charge for more movement than the stock has been delivering; smaller, less. On a contract row, that contract's own implied volatility over the stock's realised. Methodology
- Smaller 84.7% priced · 109.9% recent
- Next month vs later At-the-money implied volatility for 8-45 day expiries over 46-90 day ones: whether options price the coming month as choppier or calmer than the two after it. Ahead of a report it usually reads choppier, and the extra comes out once the report is out. Methodology
- Choppier
- Crash protection What options that pay off in a fall cost against options that pay off in a rise (the 25-delta skew), compared with this company's own normal - the median of its stored nightly readings, once there are 20 - and with five sessions ago. Protection costs a little more than upside on most shares. More than usual means readers of the chain are paying up to insure against a drop; it does not say which way the stock will go. Methodology
- past week: no change
Positioning
- Premium traded
- $71.2M calls $54.4M · puts $16.8M · latest session
- 0.31× -0.12 over the week
- Open interest added The change over five sessions in option positions left open overnight, calls and puts. A rise means positions were added. It cannot say whether they were bought or sold, so more calls is not a vote for a rise: a call is as often sold against shares already held. Methodology
- calls -71.05k · puts -88.73k past week
For options traders: ATM IV 84.7% (-6.3% 1w) · 1m ÷ 3m IV 1.07 · 25Δ skew 1.2 pts · Net GEX $19.9M
Most traded contracts 1
| Contract | Next day: opened, closed or mixed A large option trade on its own is ambiguous: it may have opened a position, closed one, or been one leg of a spread. Open interest is published overnight, so the next morning settles it. Opened: open interest rose by a good share of the volume traded, so positions were added. Closed: it fell, so positions were taken off. Mixed: it barely moved, as when one side opens while the other closes. A dash: the next morning's count is not in yet. None of the three says whether the contracts were bought or sold. Methodology | Volume against open interest The day's contracts traded, divided by the positions already standing. Above 1 the day's trading exceeded every position in existence, which cannot happen without something new — though only tomorrow's open interest proves it opened rather than closed. Methodology | Bid-ask spread The gap between the bid and the ask as a share of the midpoint: what a round trip costs before the position has moved at all. Methodology | Priced vs rest of chain The contract's implied volatility less the at-the-money reading for the same company, in points: how this strike is priced against the rest of the chain. Methodology | Move to break even How far the stock must move by expiry for a buyer at the midpoint to get the premium back: strike plus premium for a call, strike less premium for a put. Methodology | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2027 · $25 call -89% from price | — | 0.21 | 1.5% | +151.7% | +0.4% | $9.9M |
Liquid contracts, 3 weeks to 4 months out, soonest expiry first.
Filings
| Filed | Report | Period to | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Quarterly ↗ | Jun 30, 2026 | 31d |
| May 1, 2026 | Quarterly ↗ | Mar 31, 2026 | 31d |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Annual ↗ | Dec 31, 2025 | 51d |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Quarterly ↗ | Sep 30, 2025 | 37d |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Quarterly ↗ | Jun 30, 2025 | 32d |
| May 1, 2025 | Quarterly ↗ | Mar 31, 2025 | 31d |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Annual ↗ | Dec 31, 2024 | 52d |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Quarterly ↗ | Sep 30, 2024 | 38d |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Quarterly ↗ | Jun 30, 2024 | 32d |
| May 2, 2024 | Quarterly ↗ | Mar 31, 2024 | 32d |
| Feb 23, 2024 | Annual ↗ | Dec 31, 2023 | 54d |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Quarterly ↗ | Sep 30, 2023 | 34d |
Current reports
| Filed | Disclosed |
|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Director or officer change · Regulation FD ↗ |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Material agreement · New obligation · Unregistered share sale · Other events ↗ |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Results ↗ |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Director or officer change · Regulation FD ↗ |
| May 11, 2026 | Charter or bylaws · Shareholder vote ↗ |
| May 1, 2026 | Results ↗ |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Material agreement ↗ |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Results ↗ |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Regulation FD · Other events ↗ |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Results · Regulation FD ↗ |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Regulation FD ↗ |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Material agreement · New obligation ↗ |